With the Supreme Court decision on ACA coming out tomorrow, I thought I'd take the time to make my prediction about what'll happen. I believe my view is not shared by most commentators. I think the following will happen:
- The Individual Mandate will be overturned
- The requirement that insurance companies take all comers will stand
The court may or may not invalidate other parts of the law, I make no predictions, there.
The reason I believe this is that I think the members of the court recognize that the Individual Mandate is just a bridge too far from a Commerce Clause perspective; Congress does not have the power to legislate what individual people do to this level, under the Constitution. However, I don't think the Court wants to simply ball up and throw away the whole law, if not just for political reasons. Thus, they can strike down the thing they hate and have the fig leaf of deference to Congress on the rest of it.
Of course, that will leave the worst possible policy outcome - we will have a major insurance crisis in a few years if I'm correct.